What could be top class in cyber security in ten to 15 years’ time? What does the future hold for cyber security and the associated key technologies? What threats will exist in cyberspace in ten to 15 years’ time and how must internal and external security players be positioned in order to effectively counter these threats? Our innovation management team finds the answers: qualitative and quantitative trend analyses are used to identify trends and scenario and foresight analyses are used to open up future possibilities. The findings are incorporated as impulses into our three focus areas and their subject areas, within which we commission research projects. They are also made available to the Federal Republic of Germany and its stakeholders.
But how does innovation management work?
Scanning and networking: interdisciplinarity as a mode of knowledge
The Cyberagentur’s innovation and knowledge management team is made up of experts from a wide range of disciplines. This heterogeneous composition is not merely an expression of lived diversity, but constitutes the methodological core of the work: the interdisciplinary view. It is precisely the diversity of perspectives that makes it possible to identify technological, social and political developments from a variety of angles at an early stage and to evaluate them in context. The team continuously analyzes relevant sources to systematically develop future potential: These include scientific databases, structured data sets, press publications and specialist and industry reports. The aim is to recognize early signals of technological or social transformations and translate them into an analytical discourse.
A central prerequisite for understanding innovation processes is the direct exchange with those involved in their development. The team is therefore involved in conferences, specialist events and dialog formats with start-ups, companies and research institutions in order to pick up new ideas and observe trends as they emerge. If you want to understand where innovation originates, you have to work at the interfaces between politics, science, business and society.
Cyberagentur Landscapes: Strategic trend mapping
As part of the so-called Cyberagentur Landscapes, the team regularly creates thematic and country-specific trend profiles. The central questions of these analyses are: Which disruptive technologies will become relevant to security in the next ten to fifteen years? And which countries, companies or research institutions are already driving their development today?
Text mining: Identification of trends in scientific publications
Another key instrument for the early detection of technological developments is the automated analysis of scientific publications using text mining. Here, global publication activity is used as an early indicator of technological movements. Although the future cannot be measured empirically, it is possible to deduce which technological paradigms are emerging from present-day research.
Scenario and foresight analyses: foresight as a strategic compass
The findings from the trend analyses form the basis for structured future considerations in the form of scenario and foresight analyses. The aim of this methodology is not to predict, but to systematically explore possible futures in the field of cyber security. Social, technological, political, economic and ecological developments are translated into coherent scenarios that provide orientation for decision-makers.